Everything indicates that inflation in April will exceed the 8% barrier. The projections made by different consultancies agree that the rise of the dollar in the last days of April worsened the outlook.
The numbers that are expected for this month are not auspicious either. The increase in bus and train fares that came into effect on May 1 in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA) and the new winter wholesale rate chart for the electrical system approved this week by the Secretary of Energy of the Nación, Flavia Royón, will be reflected in a new price increase.
Reports already indicated adjustments in food, beverages and cleaning supplies, but adjustments in imported products, such as electronics and appliances, added strongly.
Faced with that inevitable wave, The Government wants to speed up a new “Fair Prices” agreement with a maximum increase of 5% in two tranches. From the business sector they do not want to have anything to do with the proposal and argue that prices were very relegated with respect to the last pact and the inflationary acceleration.
The official inflation report for April by INDEC will be released on Friday the 12th, as stipulated, since the extension to Monday the 15th was without effect, as the organization’s leadership had proposed.
According to the Institute for Social, Economic and Citizen Policy Research (ISEPCI), food prices rose 42.4% in the first four months of the year. The analysis carried out in 900 nearby businesses in the Buenos Aires suburbs indicates that the value of the Basic Food Basket (CAB) for a family of two adults and two small children, in April reached $91,347.30.
The items that increased the most were Warehouse (9.6%) and Meat (9.4%), while Fruits and vegetables climbed 3.39%. Compared to March, products increased by 8.1%, when the value of the food basket reached $84,478.10.
With the increases in April, the first quarter of 2023 accumulates an increase of 42.4%. So far this year, meats increased 53.9%, fruits and vegetables 44.5%, and grocery products 34.5%.
The Total Basic Basket (CBT) which, in addition to basic food, includes essential expenses in health, education, transportation, clothing, fees and maintenance of housing, climbed in April 6.70%which added to the increases in the first three months of the year brings the four-month increase to 39.30%.
For the consultancy C&T Asesores Económicos, April will record a price rise of 7.6%. In addition to the strong acceleration in food and beverages, they added a second increase in the last week of the month, along with the increase in alternative exchange rates.
A survey carried out by Ecolatina in the first half of April had shown an increase of 7.3%. During the last week of that month, the consultant also calculated the price increase of 6,000 durable goods and inflation in these categories was, on average, 6%.
Other consultants also mark an increase far removed from what was expected in the Government. For example, for LCG the average monthly inflation in the case of food was 8.1% in April, while estimating the overall cost of living was around 7.5%. In the case of EcoGo, its projection is of a 7.2% And for Analytica the rise will be around the 8%.
The most recent survey was carried out on 8,000 foods in five supermarkets using web scraping, and the result is an 8.1% rise in food between April 7 and Wednesday May 3, above the 7.7% that measured the INDEC in March.
In March, Argentina’s year-on-year inflation climbed to 104.3%, 1.8 percentage points more than in February. In addition, consumer prices accumulated a 94.8% rise in 2022, with a notable acceleration compared to 50.9% in 2021.
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